Published rule
Weekly switch
Both keys up means MSTY. Both keys down means WNTR. Otherwise keep the fund you already hold.
Week ending Oct 9, 2026
Still WNTR since Oct 17, 2025.
MSTR
1 of 3 yes
1 of 3 checks are yes, so this key is down.
Bitcoin
4 of 4 yes
4 of 4 checks are yes, so this key is up.
Last 12 weeks
Jul 24, 2026Oct 9, 2026
How this works
MSTR is DOWN (1 of 3 checks). Bitcoin is already UP (4 of 4 checks). One more MSTR check turning yes would make both keys UP. Until then the book stays in WNTR. A switch to MSTY would trade at the next Friday close.
The check is after Friday’s close. The trade is the next Friday close. The public recipe on this site stays half and half. This page is a separate 100% switch.
Saved Oct 16, 2026. The week that is still open is left out. MSTR and Bitcoin prices come from Yahoo’s free chart. Bitcoin before 2014-09-17 uses CoinMetrics PriceUSD. MVRV is CoinMetrics CapMVRVCur, lagged one day. No API key.
MSTR’s key is up when at least 2 of its 3 checks are yes. Bitcoin’s key is up when at least 3 of its 4 checks are yes, and down when at least 3 are no. Two and two is no call.
This week’s checks
- MSTR 200-day average rising (vs 10 trading days ago)No. Now $135.86. Ten trading days ago $136.54.
- MSTR above its 200-day averageYes. Price $154.34. Average $135.86.
- MSTR 20-week average above 50-week averageNo. 20-week $120.69. 50-week $146.10.
- Bitcoin above its 200-day averageYes. Price $82,546.32. Average $71,856.29.
- Bitcoin weekly RSI(14) above 50Yes. Weekly RSI 59.6.
- Bitcoin above its 20-week averageYes. Price $82,546.32. 20-week average $70,501.12.
- Bitcoin MVRV above its 1-year averageYes. MVRV 1.52. One-year average 1.45.
Flip history
The first answer was MSTY on Jul 22, 2011.
- Dec 2, 2011MSTY to WNTR
- Jun 1, 2012WNTR to MSTY
- Jul 5, 2013MSTY to WNTR
- Sep 13, 2013WNTR to MSTY
- Feb 2, 2018MSTY to WNTR
- Apr 5, 2019WNTR to MSTY
- Jan 10, 2020MSTY to WNTR
- Jan 17, 2020WNTR to MSTY
- Mar 13, 2020MSTY to WNTR
- Sep 25, 2020WNTR to MSTY
- Dec 10, 2021MSTY to WNTR
- Mar 3, 2023WNTR to MSTY
- Oct 17, 2025MSTY to WNTR
How this works
Each line is a Friday when both keys agreed the other way. The trade is the next Friday close.
The latest trade date on file is Oct 24, 2025.
Published test
These dollars are the published test through Oct 9, 2026, not a new run.
Share value
$24,909
Oct 16, 2025 to Oct 9, 2026
Dividends
$40,519
Together
$65,428
Biggest drop
-67.3%
1 flip, 0 false. Ended in WNTR.
How this works
Start with $50,000. The book is 100% in one fund. Share value does not include the cash payouts.
Half and half, rebalanced every week: $21,841 share value, $27,185 dividends. Biggest drop -56.9%.
The 7-week plan: $40,076 share value, $35,124 dividends. Biggest drop -46.9%.
Buy and hold MSTY: $13,465 share value, $17,206 dividends.
A longer test holds MSTR when the rule says MSTY, and cash when the rule says WNTR. Cash earns nothing in the test. From Aug 14, 2020 it ended $2,937,800. Buy and hold MSTR ended $526,291.
From Jul 22, 2022: ended $752,773. From Jul 29, 2011: ended $1,477,183. Worst false flip: 2020-03-20 to cash, -$11,410.
The fund window is about one year, and MSTR was falling. Both funds lost share value in the test. The cash payouts are what made the total larger. This is not advice.
Last flip email
The note for the flip on Oct 17, 2025. It was not sent from this site.
How this works
Subject: Switch signal: move from MSTY to WNTR The weekly switch signal flipped to WNTR (bearish on MSTR and Bitcoin) after the close on 2025-10-17. Why: both keys now point the same way. MSTR trend key: DOWN Bitcoin key: DOWN This week's checks: [no] MSTR 200-day average rising (vs 10 trading days ago) [no] MSTR above its 200-day average [yes] MSTR 20-week average above 50-week average [no] Bitcoin above its 200-day average [no] Bitcoin weekly RSI(14) above 50 [no] Bitcoin above its 20-week average [no] Bitcoin MVRV above its 1-year average What the tested rule does: it moves the whole book to WNTR at the close next Friday. The signal stays on WNTR until both keys turn the other way. This is a research signal, not advice. Past results do not promise future results. MSTY and WNTR can both lose share value over time, even when the signal is right. Buttondown adds the unsubscribe link at the bottom of this email.